Managing Expectations For A Global Trade War
The sweeping policy change for US tariffs announced yesterday by President Trump is a game changer for the global economy. Exactly how trade flows shift, economies pivot and governments around the world react is unclear, but most forecasts point to slower growth, higher inflation and a reduction in global trade. Trump, by contrast, says the tariffs will “quickly” usher in a new era of prosperity for the US.
This much is clear: a grand experiment in global trade, with trillions of dollars in economic activity at stake, is underway. As with any policy shift, the results are unknown. It will take several months at a minimum to assess the impact.
