10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 11 April 2025
The “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher in March vs. the previous month and is now approaching the 4.0% mark – the highest estimate in 16 years. The analysis is based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
The current average monthly fair-value estimate is 3.91%, which remains below the actual 10-year yield. In yesterday’s trading, the benchmark rate rose to 4.44% (Apr. 10).
As discussed on these pages in recent history, a market premium for the 10-year rate has persisted since late-2022. The latest increase in the average fair-value estimate suggests that the actual 10-year yield will remain relatively steady if not trend higher in the near term.
